Semi-OT: What do you think will happen after social distancing?

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mtarrani

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I think we'll lean toward domestically manufactured goods and borders will be protected more vigorously .

Person to person ? Depends on the circumstance . The touchy feely movement will have to re invent itself and yard sales may become a historical curiosity .
I doubt that we have the ability to restart domestic manufacturing. That stuff has been offshore for so long that we don't have the plants or skills to restart it without a LOT of lead time. Then the prices of domestically made goods will be so high that folks will take the risk and buy from offshore sources.
 

swarfrat

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I was actually looking for a dado blade for the table saw, and really considered trying to buy US built if I could. I was even willing to pay up to about double, but it wasn't even close. The $50 dado blades are utter crap. A nice one starts at $100. The US built was more like $300-400, which means I'll find another way to do it (router most likely). Also - life doesn't really come crashing to a halt if you can't buy dado blades. But I absolutely believe we should be making more of our stuff here. It will mean more automation. But that's not a bad thing. People running automated lines typically make more than unskilled labor, and nobody here wants to be doing a manual labor assembly line thing. Those are tedious, high burnout, low paying sweatshop type gigs.
 

franke

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Yes, once stay-in-place restrictions have been lifted, besides big-ticket items like autos, etc., we will no doubt see an increase in such things as restaurant meals, travel, and other forms of outside the home economic activity assuming there are enough left with the necessary disposable income to spend.

But without knowing the extent to which the Covid-19 pandemic will effect the US and the rest of the world, one thing that is certain is that the longer it endures, the more structural change it will bring about. Below are three areas where I think the US could see the greatest change:

Economy: Notwithstanding the plethora of wingnut theories in wide currency regarding the inner-workings and agenda of the Federal Reserve Banking System, what is certain is the US enjoys a unique place in the world in that it can borrow (in effect, “create”) as much money as it needs to whenever the situation calls because of Federal Reserve System and the international agreements set in place following WW II that allow it to (e.g., the world commodities market trade in dollars; the US Dollar’s place as a stable currency is based on “full faith and credit”, sustained by the international community’s institutionalized belief that because of size of its economy, the US will always be able to service its debt).

However, continued intervention by the Federal government on the scale of what is currently being implemented may have unintended consequences down-line, and thus place limits on the how often (and to what extent) such measures could be undertaken in the future, especially if in the pandemic's aftermath the US economy’s ability to service its debt were to fall significantly below expectations.

Income inequality: The US produces roughly 15% of the world’s GDP. Some say this is because we are a nation of laws, politically stable, with a sound infrastructure and financial system; others because we have what is essentially a winner-take-all economy with scant regulation (when compared to other industrialized countries). Regardless of where one may stand on the question as to the underlying reasons, the expectation that the government acts on behalf of its citizens in the form of direct payments only in times of crisis raises the question as to why it would have to in such a degree in the first place. If wealth were proportionately distributed in relation to the shared economic benefit produced, then the notion that labor was entirely a market-based commodity, no different than a gallon of gas or a pound of cheese, would not stand up to the reality that in times of crisis, or one could argue, most of the time and in most situations where there is great need, the burden of providing such ultimately falls on the taxpaying public rather than a private sector who may have a hand in creating the need when it functions mainly to return greater profits (that are evidently not “trickling down”).

Healthcare: Depending on the political climate in the coming year, and the extent of the final death toll, the present market-based, for-profit healthcare system that we have in the US could be replaced with either single-payer or (for the near-term) an expanded ACA. The American Medical Association - ostensibly a trade guild which exists to ensure the public of the competency of its members - also has a history of advocacy solely aimed to protect its constituent’s earnings by controlling the number of accredited medical schools, residencies, and state medical licenses. While it’s good that an independent professional organization ensures those it accredits are fully capable of delivering medical care, from an economic perspective, the AMA is functioning like a cartel, and whose past efforts in this area indirectly helped create the often inefficient and expensive healthcare insurance and healthcare delivery industries that currently exist, resulting in a system where healthcare is “rationed” for no apparent reason other than financial incentives. The extent that the Covid-19 pandemic places a strain on this system, and its aftermath, will no doubt raise the question as why this is - and who benefits - and could permanently change the ways we produce and distribute healthcare in this country.
 

Rock Salad

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It is already a constant block party at the convenient store by my house.
People are cruising in cars again.
Everybody's hooked on video games.

It's the 1980's redux
 

michaelocalypse

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I stayed in before, and I'll stay in after... except for the few mandatory outings my extroverted friends are threatening me with. Most people will pick back up with their previous routine within a month of this being done. People did what they did before because they liked it, and what they like hasn't changed.
 

Old PIT Guy

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But without knowing the extent to which the Covid-19 pandemic will effect the US and the rest of the world, one thing that is certain is that the longer it endures, the more structural change it will bring about.
Well, with a best case of a year to 18 months in wait for a vaccine, and what would then likely be a dumpster fire with world-wide distribution that'll put PPE issues to shame, perhaps an adjustment of expectations for the eventuality of mother nature's turn at bat would be a good idea.
 

drumaniac

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Less travel - business and pleasure - more skype meetings

Less people eating in restaurants - more Uber Eats

Large gatherings will shrink to moderate levels

Online shopping will grow

Hand shaking, hugging and physical greetings as we know them are history

People going to work with the sniffles etc - will be totally frowned upon

Health Care and Hospital procedures will be fine tuned and will be better shape for next time and there will be a next time.
 

Stickclick

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I think we will still have distance restrictions and crowd size restrictions but bars, restaurants and stores will be open. People have cabin fever. They can't wait to party. I'm planning on performing outside bars, really loud, really excited to be partying again.
 

RIDDIM

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Does anyone have a sense of how life was in WWI before and after the flu epidemic of 1918?
 

equipmentdork

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I'm feeling that there will be a mad dash to be the first restaurant, club, store, etc., after the "all clear" is sounded, with possibly a few establishments jumping the gun simply because being dark for a month to 6 weeks will mortally wound most businesses. It's hard to guess what re-emerging into reality will be like.
Will it be like someone firing a starter's pistol, or will people slowly ooze out trepidatiously?



Dan
 

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Yip, and vastly benafit the very few.
It's also a magic trick in a way. Look here, while this, and that change with government.
Strange, crooked times, so ya know what I'm gonna do?
Practice
 
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jaymandude

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We can't afford to do what's going on now for too long. The country and the capitalist structure cannot handle it. Regardless of how many people might die this can'tlast longer than 2 months at the most... That's how I feel. What I want or don't want doesn't matter.
 

mtarrani

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We can't afford to do what's going on now for too long. The country and the capitalist structure cannot handle it. Regardless of how many people might die this can'tlast longer than 2 months at the most... That's how I feel. What I want or don't want doesn't matter.
I am betting that it is going to go on for a LOT longer than two months. I am also betting that we will adapt and survive. Remember what airports were like before and after 9/11? After 9/11 and the shoe bomb incident what was previously unthinkable became the norm. A lot of what we are doing now (and will soon be doing when the death toll becomes serious enough to get even the most hardened skeptic's or conspiracy theorist's attention) will be the new norm.
 
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jaymandude

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I am betting that it is going to go on for a LOT longer than two months. I am also betting that we will adapt and survive. Remember what airports were like before and after 9/11? After 9/11 and the shoe bomb incident what was previously unthinkable became the norm. A lot of what we are doing now (and will soon be doing when the death toll becomes serious enough to get even the most hardened skeptic's or conspiracy theorist's attention) will be the new norm.
I think the virus will definitely be around. I'm just not sure how you can envision an entire country unemployed and the domino effect of that to the tune of 4-6-8 months. No to mention the massive debt and depression that will occur with that. I mean, my parents are 87 and 90 living in NYC. There's not much you can say to me :)
 

mtarrani

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I think the virus will definitely be around. I'm just not sure how you can envision an entire country unemployed and the domino effect of that to the tune of 4-6-8 months. No to mention the massive debt and depression that will occur with that. I mean, my parents are 87 and 90 living in NYC. There's not much you can say to me :)
The whole country will find a way to work remotely in many cases. I have been working for a California company from Florida and have never met a single person with whom I work, including the one who pays me. Around here in Central Florida I am seeing restaurants that are adapting using curb side take out and delivery, as well as other ways of keeping things going that never occurred to businesses mere months ago. Now if you are talking about live music, that may not recover for some time to come. But remote DJs and karaoke hosts may be more the norm than live bands when we are able to congregate in the future. Still, businesses run by innovative owners will find a way to stay viable. Other businesses will die, while the new models that are emerging and will continue to emerge will provide opportunities for other folks. We will survive. We have in the past and will going forward.
 
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jaymandude

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The whole country will find a way to work remotely in many cases. I have been working for a California company from Florida and have never met a single person with whom I work, including the one who pays me. Around here in Central Florida I am seeing restaurants that are adapting using curb side take out and delivery, as well as other ways of keeping things going that never occurred to businesses mere months ago. Now if you are talking about live music, that may not recover for some time to come. But remote DJs and karaoke hosts may be more the norm than live bands when we are able to congregate in the future. Still, businesses run by innovative owners will find a way to stay viable. Other businesses will die, while the new models that are emerging and will continue to emerge will provide opportunities for other folks. We will survive. We have in the past and will going forward.
Your " many cases" is in my opinion a drop in the bucket. If it continues like this, there will be a massive about of suffering, bankrupcy, homelesness, and hunger. For starters. Nobody wants that to happen, obviously. But when do we resume trying to be "normal" ?
 

BennyK

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I think we will finally come to terms with the difference between quality of life and standard of living . The middle class will be redefined . Exactly by who and from where this definition will come from should be central in the debate .

During the cold war , east Europeans treasured Levi jeans and would spend a small fortune to own them . With the collapse of the communist nightmare they went about trying to be ' western ' and eventually realized the grass wasn't always greener on the other side so they rediscovered their centuries old traditions and histories that in the past helped them to survive .

We'd better get back to the basics of our core values and understand the importance of the institutions that protect them . It might mean wearing the same Levis for a bit longer . I think we can handle that .
 
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